RCL · NYSE · STOCK
Royal Caribbean Group (RCL) Stock Analysis
$279.62
52W $203.85 – $366.50
51/100
$75.70B
17.3
1.82
Is RCL Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Royal Caribbean Group (RCL) Watch with a composite score of 51/100
, based on 6 analysts with 33% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +9.00 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -11.00 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 43.8% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 7.6x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 2.13 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.13) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Current ratio of 0.18 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
- Bollinger bandwidth of 27.6% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
51/100
Agreement
33%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 82%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 43.8% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 7.6x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bearish
38
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
33
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.13) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 51.4 to 51.0.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
67.2
Neutral
MACD Histogram
5.241
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$264.56
Resistance
$304.25
Bollinger %B
0.83
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$274.75
Above
EMA 21
$268.28
Above
EMA 50
$273.54
Above
EMA 200
$287.00
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
67
Growth
57
Profitability
92
Financial Health
5
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
17.3×
P/B Ratio
7.42×
PEG Ratio
0.81
Dividend Yield
1.95%
52W High
$366.50
52W Low
$203.85
Quality & Growth
ROE
4257.2%
ROA
1026.7%
Gross Margin
4664.4%
Operating Margin
2732.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.30
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 17.3 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 7.4x; PEG ratio of 0.8 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 42.6%; Return on assets of 10.3%; Net margin of 23.6%; Gross margin of 46.6%; Current ratio of 0.21 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.30; Free cash flow per share is negative (-1.55); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 4.6%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+28.6% -> +16.9% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -3.9%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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