SAM · NYSE · STOCK
Boston Beer (SAM) Stock Analysis
$169.87
52W $158.68 – $264.46
56/100
$1.78B
-25.1
0.82
Is SAM Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Boston Beer Company (SAM) Watch with a composite score of 56/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +4.24 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -15.76 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Risk Analyst sees a compelling case — low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. Growth Analyst remains cautious — revenue declining -6.1% yoy -- this is not a growth story right now. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
Bear Case
- ROE of only -8.9% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Revenue declining -6.1% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Price structure (HH_HL) contradicts the downtrend -- mixed signals — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 56%
of 72 Consumer Defensive peers
Value Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
− ROE of only -8.9% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason
Growth Analyst
bearish
23
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− Revenue declining -6.1% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
neutral
53
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 56.4 to 55.8.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Technical Analyst: score 56->53 (-3); +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
55.2
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.964
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$165.47
Resistance
$190.59
Bollinger %B
0.63
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$168.61
Above
EMA 21
$169.32
Above
EMA 50
$173.56
Below
EMA 200
$193.15
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
95
Growth
32
Profitability
54
Financial Health
60
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-25.1×
P/B Ratio
2.47×
PEG Ratio
0.14
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$264.46
52W Low
$158.68
Quality & Growth
ROE
1281.7%
ROA
908.8%
Gross Margin
4509.2%
Operating Margin
581.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.04
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -25.1 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.5x; PEG ratio of 0.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 12.8%; Return on assets of 9.1%; Net margin of -3.4%; Gross margin of 45.1%; Current ratio of 1.05 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.04; Free cash flow per share is positive (19.89); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 25.1%; 2 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth decelerating (+177.4% -> +122.6% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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