SAM · NASDAQ · STOCK
Boston Beer Company
$186.61
52W $158.68 – $264.46
57/100
$1.94B
-27.5
0.78
Is SAM Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Boston Beer Company (SAM) Watch with a composite score of 57/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated August 09, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +2.81 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -17.19 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Risk Analyst sees a compelling case — low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. Growth Analyst remains cautious — revenue declining -6.1% yoy -- this is not a growth story right now. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- ROE of only -8.9% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Revenue declining -6.1% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 09, 2026
Overall Committee Score
57/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 54%
of 50 Consumer Defensive peers
Value Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
− ROE of only -8.9% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason
Growth Analyst
bearish
23
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− Revenue declining -6.1% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 4 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 57.2 to 57.2.
Comparing 2026-08-08 to 2026-08-09 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
62.3
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.666
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$185.85
Resistance
$192.22
Bollinger %B
0.78
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$183.77
Above
EMA 21
$181.79
Above
EMA 50
$184.01
Above
EMA 200
$203.98
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
94
Growth
32
Profitability
54
Financial Health
60
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-27.5×
P/B Ratio
2.71×
PEG Ratio
0.15
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$264.46
52W Low
$158.68
Quality & Growth
ROE
1281.7%
ROA
908.8%
Gross Margin
4509.2%
Operating Margin
581.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.04
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -27.5 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.7x; PEG ratio of 0.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 12.8%; Return on assets of 9.1%; Net margin of -3.4%; Gross margin of 45.1%; Current ratio of 1.05 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.04; Free cash flow per share is positive (19.83); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 25.1%; 2 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth decelerating (+177.4% -> +122.6% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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