SJM · NYSE · STOCK
J.M. Smucker (SJM) Stock Analysis
$123.55
52W $88.25 – $135.89
49/100
$13.01B
56.6
0.26
Is SJM Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates J.M. Smucker Company (The) (SJM) Watch with a composite score of 49/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated September 17, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +10.89 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -9.11 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Value Analyst remains cautious — p/e of 57.5 is expensive by classic value standards. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Dividend yield of 3.7% pays you to wait — Value
- 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
Bear Case
- P/E of 57.5 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- ROE of only 4.1% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Current ratio of 0.78 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 17, 2026
Overall Committee Score
49/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 88%
of 72 Consumer Defensive peers
Value Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
+ Dividend yield of 3.7% pays you to wait
− P/E of 57.5 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Current ratio of 0.78 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2514.55)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 49.1 to 49.1.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-09-16 to 2026-09-17 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
32.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-1.294
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Bollinger %B
0.26
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$123.58
Below
EMA 21
$124.08
Below
EMA 50
$120.66
Above
EMA 200
$111.06
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
63
Growth
46
Profitability
15
Financial Health
35
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
56.6×
P/B Ratio
2.26×
PEG Ratio
0.08
Dividend Yield
3.63%
52W High
$135.89
52W Low
$88.25
Quality & Growth
ROE
-250.2%
ROA
-85.5%
Gross Margin
3865.3%
Operating Margin
1969.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.20
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 56.6 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.3x; PEG ratio of 0.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -2.5%; Return on assets of -0.9%; Net margin of 2.5%; Gross margin of 38.7%; Current ratio of 0.87 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.20; Free cash flow per share is positive (14.87); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 7.2%; 3 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+16.4% -> -13.4% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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