SW · NYSE · STOCK
Smurfit Westrock (SW) Stock Analysis
$45.80
52W $32.73 – $52.65
49/100
$23.74B
48.4
0.98
Is SW Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Smurfit Westrock (SW) Watch with a composite score of 49/100
, based on 5 analysts with 40% agreement.
Last updated September 05, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +11.08 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -8.92 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Growth Analyst remains cautious — revenue declining -29.4% yoy -- this is not a growth story right now. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price-to-book of 1.1x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- News sentiment is positive (+0.17 across 6 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- P/E of 47.6 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- ROE of only 2.7% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Revenue declining -29.4% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- EPS declining -21.4% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- 5 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- RSI at 28 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 05, 2026
Overall Committee Score
49/100
Agreement
40%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 90%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
43
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ Price-to-book of 1.1x is a discount to asset value
− P/E of 47.6 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− Revenue declining -29.4% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
bearish
38
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− RSI at 28 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup)
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.17 across 6 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3059.07)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 48.9 to 48.9.
Comparing 2026-09-04 to 2026-09-05 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
28.4
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-0.573
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$41.95
Resistance
$47.72
Bollinger %B
0.00
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$46.88
Below
EMA 21
$47.44
Below
EMA 50
$46.52
Below
EMA 200
$43.80
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
58
Growth
20
Profitability
9
Financial Health
70
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
48.4×
P/B Ratio
1.37×
PEG Ratio
1.49
Dividend Yield
3.89%
52W High
$52.65
52W Low
$32.73
Quality & Growth
ROE
324.7%
ROA
131.8%
Gross Margin
1793.5%
Operating Margin
535.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.79
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 48.4 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.4x; PEG ratio of 1.5 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 3.2%; Return on assets of 1.3%; Net margin of 1.6%; Gross margin of 17.9%; Current ratio of 1.45 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.79; Free cash flow per share is positive (1.89); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 19.8%; 5 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-2.9% -> +6.1% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -40.7%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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