TNL · NYSE · STOCK
Travel + Leisure (TNL) Stock Analysis
$62.61
52W $58.33 – $81.00
50/100
$3.84B
16.8
1.21
Is TNL Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Travel + Leisure Co. (TNL) Watch with a composite score of 50/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +9.71 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -10.29 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 7.81) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 121.8% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 4.8% pays you to wait — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 15.4x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 7.81 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- EPS declining -36.5% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Price structure (HH_HL) contradicts the downtrend -- mixed signals — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 7.81) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
50/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 86%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 121.8% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 15.4x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− EPS declining -36.5% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
49
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 7.81) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 50.3 to 50.3.
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
41.7
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.281
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$61.28
Resistance
$63.16
Bollinger %B
0.32
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$62.83
Below
EMA 21
$63.95
Below
EMA 50
$66.89
Below
EMA 200
$68.55
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
98
Growth
70
Profitability
32
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
16.8×
P/B Ratio
-3.83×
PEG Ratio
-0.46
Dividend Yield
3.77%
52W High
$81.00
52W Low
$58.33
Quality & Growth
ROE
-2342.2%
ROA
340.2%
Gross Margin
4518.8%
Operating Margin
1519.3%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
-5.60
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 16.8 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of -3.8x; PEG ratio of -0.5 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -23.4%; Return on assets of 3.4%; Net margin of 5.8%; Gross margin of 45.2%; Current ratio of 3.15 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of -5.60; Free cash flow per share is positive (10.95); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 1.7%; EPS growth accelerating (-20.8% -> +29.7% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 13.9%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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