TNL · NASDAQ · STOCK
Travel + Leisure Co.
$74.23
52W $57.79 – $81.00
55/100
$4.70B
20.6
1.19
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is TNL Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Travel + Leisure Co. (TNL) Buy with a composite score of 55/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated August 09, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +19.70 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -0.30 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — market regime is bullish (bull market -- normal position sizing). Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 7.81) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 121.8% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 3.1% pays you to wait — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 15.4x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 7.81 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- EPS declining -36.5% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 7.81) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 09, 2026
Overall Committee Score
55/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 70%
of 124 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 121.8% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 15.4x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− EPS declining -36.5% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
bullish
69
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 7.81) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.22 across 9 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 4 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 55.3 to 55.3.
Comparing 2026-08-08 to 2026-08-09 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
52.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.103
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$68.93
Resistance
$78.12
Bollinger %B
0.67
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$76.80
Below
EMA 21
$75.93
Below
EMA 50
$74.25
Below
EMA 200
$69.54
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
93
Growth
70
Profitability
32
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
20.6×
P/B Ratio
-4.69×
PEG Ratio
-0.57
Dividend Yield
3.02%
52W High
$81.00
52W Low
$57.79
Quality & Growth
ROE
-2342.2%
ROA
340.2%
Gross Margin
4518.8%
Operating Margin
1519.3%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
-5.60
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 20.6 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of -4.7x; PEG ratio of -0.6 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -23.4%; Return on assets of 3.4%; Net margin of 5.8%; Gross margin of 45.2%; Current ratio of 3.15 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of -5.60; Free cash flow per share is positive (10.95); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 1.7%; EPS growth accelerating (-20.8% -> +29.7% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 13.9%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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