TSCO · NASDAQ · STOCK
Tractor Supply
$34.58
52W $28.36 – $62.89
51/100
$18.12B
18.0
0.46
Is TSCO Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Tractor Supply (TSCO) Watch with a composite score of 51/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated August 08, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +9.18 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -10.82 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — market regime is bullish (bull market -- normal position sizing). Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 18.7% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 39.3% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 2.8% pays you to wait — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 10.4x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- EPS declining -5.8% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- 5 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- RSI at 79 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Price trading above the upper Bollinger Band -- stretched — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 18.7% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 08, 2026
Overall Committee Score
51/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 91%
of 124 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 39.3% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 10.4x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
neutral
41
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− EPS declining -5.8% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− RSI at 79 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 18.7% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 4 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 51.5 to 50.8.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: score 60->55 (-4).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-08-07 to 2026-08-08 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
78.8
Overbought
MACD Histogram
0.455
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$28.93
Resistance
$56.27
Bollinger %B
1.06
Above Upper Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$32.74
Above
EMA 21
$31.77
Above
EMA 50
$32.09
Above
EMA 200
$41.19
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
68
Growth
50
Profitability
66
Financial Health
23
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
18.0×
P/B Ratio
6.88×
PEG Ratio
-3.06
Dividend Yield
2.72%
52W High
$62.89
52W Low
$28.36
Quality & Growth
ROE
4246.3%
ROA
1002.5%
Gross Margin
3246.5%
Operating Margin
891.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.49
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 18.0 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 6.9x; PEG ratio of -3.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 42.5%; Return on assets of 10.0%; Net margin of 6.4%; Gross margin of 32.5%; Current ratio of 1.33 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.49; Free cash flow per share is positive (0.59); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 2.8%; 5 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-27.9% -> +161.3% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 0.0%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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