TSCO · NASDAQ · STOCK
Tractor Supply (TSCO) Stock Analysis
$33.70
52W $28.36 – $58.21
55/100
$17.67B
17.6
0.51
Is TSCO Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Tractor Supply (TSCO) Watch with a composite score of 55/100
, based on 5 analysts with 80% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +5.21 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -14.79 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 39.3% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 10.4x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- EPS declining -5.8% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- 5 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Price structure (HH_HL) contradicts the downtrend -- mixed signals — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
55/100
Agreement
80%
Analysts
5
Conviction
High
Sector Rank
Top 61%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 39.3% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 10.4x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
neutral
41
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− EPS declining -5.8% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
53
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 54.8 to 54.8.
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
68.1
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.232
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$28.93
Resistance
$36.88
Bollinger %B
0.93
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$32.57
Above
EMA 21
$32.64
Above
EMA 50
$32.98
Above
EMA 200
$38.49
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
70
Growth
50
Profitability
66
Financial Health
23
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
17.6×
P/B Ratio
6.71×
PEG Ratio
-2.98
Dividend Yield
2.82%
52W High
$58.21
52W Low
$28.36
Quality & Growth
ROE
4246.3%
ROA
1002.5%
Gross Margin
3246.5%
Operating Margin
891.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.49
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 17.6 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 6.7x; PEG ratio of -3.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 42.5%; Return on assets of 10.0%; Net margin of 6.4%; Gross margin of 32.5%; Current ratio of 1.33 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.49; Free cash flow per share is positive (0.59); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 2.6%; 5 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-27.9% -> +161.3% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 0.0%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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