ULTA · NASDAQ · STOCK
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Stock Analysis
$593.20
52W $443.60 – $714.97
61/100
$26.05B
22.1
0.84
Is ULTA Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Buy with a composite score of 61/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 16, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +13.98 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -6.02 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Risk Analyst sees a compelling case — low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.02) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2739.42). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 45.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.02) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 10.5x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- RSI at 86 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Price trading above the upper Bollinger Band -- stretched — Technical
- Daily trend (uptrend) conflicts with the weekly trend (downtrend) -- fighting the larger trend — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 16, 2026
Overall Committee Score
61/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 20%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
59
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 45.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 10.5x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
51
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− RSI at 86 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.02) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2739.42)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 61.1 to 61.0.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Portfolio Manager: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-15 to 2026-10-16 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
85.7
Overbought
MACD Histogram
5.419
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$499.75
Resistance
$713.93
Bollinger %B
1.20
Above Upper Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$575.55
Above
EMA 21
$560.92
Above
EMA 50
$544.33
Above
EMA 200
$535.47
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
24
Growth
56
Profitability
74
Financial Health
61
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
22.1×
P/B Ratio
9.99×
PEG Ratio
4.23
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$714.97
52W Low
$443.60
Quality & Growth
ROE
4114.5%
ROA
1648.0%
Gross Margin
3931.8%
Operating Margin
1256.3%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.95
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 22.1 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 10.0x; PEG ratio of 4.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 41.1%; Return on assets of 16.5%; Net margin of 9.3%; Gross margin of 39.3%; Current ratio of 1.35 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.95; Free cash flow per share is positive (24.60); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 3.8%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (-3.4% -> -15.4% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 13.1%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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