ULTA · NASDAQ · STOCK
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Stock Analysis
$564.34
52W $443.60 – $714.97
54/100
$23.95B
20.2
0.85
Is ULTA Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Watch with a composite score of 54/100
, based on 4 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated September 05, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +5.50 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -14.50 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Growth Analyst remains cautious — growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 05, 2026
Overall Committee Score
54/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
4
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 59%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3059.07)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score weakened from 62.0 to 54.5.
- Recommendation changed from Buy to Watch.
- Conviction changed from moderate to contested.
- Committee agreement fell notably from 67% to 50%.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Growth Analyst.
- Analyst(s) abstained: Risk Analyst, Value Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Growth Analyst: stance neutral->bearish; score 50->35 (-15).
- Risk Analyst abstained (was bullish at 80).
- Value Analyst abstained (was neutral at 59).
Comparing 2026-09-04 to 2026-09-05 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
65.3
Neutral
MACD Histogram
1.281
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$499.75
Resistance
$571.50
Bollinger %B
0.84
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$541.31
Above
EMA 21
$531.14
Above
EMA 50
$516.87
Above
EMA 200
$529.25
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
26
Growth
56
Profitability
74
Financial Health
61
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
20.2×
P/B Ratio
9.14×
PEG Ratio
3.86
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$714.97
52W Low
$443.60
Quality & Growth
ROE
4114.5%
ROA
1648.0%
Gross Margin
3931.8%
Operating Margin
1256.3%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.95
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 20.2 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 9.1x; PEG ratio of 3.9 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 41.1%; Return on assets of 16.5%; Net margin of 9.3%; Gross margin of 39.3%; Current ratio of 1.35 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.95; Free cash flow per share is positive (24.60); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 3.8%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (-3.4% -> -15.4% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 13.1%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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