UPS · NYSE · STOCK
United Parcel Service (UPS) Stock Analysis
$102.04
52W $82.00 – $122.41
55/100
$88.78B
19.4
1.04
Is UPS Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates United Parcel Service (UPS) Watch with a composite score of 55/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated August 17, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +5.33 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -14.67 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 17.0% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 29.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 6.3% pays you to wait — Value
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 5.2x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Revenue declining -0.4% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- EPS declining -20.1% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 17.0% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 17, 2026
Overall Committee Score
55/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 85%
of 223 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 29.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 5.2x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− Revenue declining -0.4% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 17.0% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2963.04)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 54.7 to 54.7.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Portfolio Manager: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-08-16 to 2026-08-17 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
41.1
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.408
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$94.06
Resistance
$106.41
Bollinger %B
0.31
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$105.33
Below
EMA 21
$107.10
Below
EMA 50
$107.67
Below
EMA 200
$104.90
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
72
Growth
80
Profitability
50
Financial Health
31
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
19.4×
P/B Ratio
5.90×
PEG Ratio
-0.97
Dividend Yield
6.28%
52W High
$122.41
52W Low
$82.00
Quality & Growth
ROE
3433.8%
ROA
762.4%
Gross Margin
1663.4%
Operating Margin
731.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.90
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 19.4 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 5.9x; PEG ratio of -1.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 34.3%; Return on assets of 7.6%; Net margin of 5.1%; Gross margin of 16.6%; Current ratio of 1.18 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.90; Free cash flow per share is positive (6.45); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 4.9%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-55.0% -> +64.5% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 13.6%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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