UPS · NYSE · STOCK
United Parcel Service (UPS) Stock Analysis
$94.56
52W $82.00 – $122.41
57/100
$80.31B
17.5
1.05
Is UPS Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates United Parcel Service (UPS) Watch with a composite score of 57/100
, based on 5 analysts with 80% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +3.25 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -16.75 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 29.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 4.3% pays you to wait — Value
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 5.2x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Revenue declining -0.4% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- EPS declining -20.1% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bearish picture — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
57/100
Agreement
80%
Analysts
5
Conviction
High
Sector Rank
Top 55%
of 227 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 29.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 5.2x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− Revenue declining -0.4% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
neutral
56
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 56.8 to 56.8.
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
49.9
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.263
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$94.06
Resistance
$99.81
Bollinger %B
0.42
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$93.91
Above
EMA 21
$95.71
Below
EMA 50
$99.47
Below
EMA 200
$102.86
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
77
Growth
80
Profitability
50
Financial Health
31
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
17.5×
P/B Ratio
5.33×
PEG Ratio
-0.88
Dividend Yield
6.94%
52W High
$122.41
52W Low
$82.00
Quality & Growth
ROE
3433.8%
ROA
762.4%
Gross Margin
1663.4%
Operating Margin
731.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.90
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 17.5 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 5.3x; PEG ratio of -0.9 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 34.3%; Return on assets of 7.6%; Net margin of 5.1%; Gross margin of 16.6%; Current ratio of 1.18 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.90; Free cash flow per share is positive (6.45); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 4.9%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-55.0% -> +64.5% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 13.6%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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