VVV · NASDAQ · STOCK
Valvoline
$35.36
52W $28.50 – $41.33
52/100
$4.51B
47.8
1.00
Is VVV Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Valvoline (VVV) Watch with a composite score of 52/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated August 08, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +8.06 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -11.94 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — market regime is bullish (bull market -- normal position sizing). Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 3.90) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 28.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.33 across 20 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- P/E of 44.8 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 13.5x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 3.90 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- EPS declining -63.3% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- RSI at 24 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 08, 2026
Overall Committee Score
52/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 87%
of 40 Energy peers
Value Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
+ ROE of 28.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 44.8 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− EPS declining -63.3% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
bearish
38
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− RSI at 24 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup)
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 3.90) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.33 across 20 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 4 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 52.3 to 51.9.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-08-07 to 2026-08-08 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
23.8
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-0.516
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$34.55
Resistance
$36.50
Bollinger %B
-0.13
Below Lower Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$37.50
Below
EMA 21
$38.18
Below
EMA 50
$37.65
Below
EMA 200
$35.80
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
31
Growth
91
Profitability
63
Financial Health
0
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
47.8×
P/B Ratio
10.84×
PEG Ratio
1.13
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$41.33
52W Low
$28.50
Quality & Growth
ROE
6224.5%
ROA
789.0%
Gross Margin
3828.4%
Operating Margin
1785.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
4.75
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 47.8 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 10.8x; PEG ratio of 1.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 62.2%; Return on assets of 7.9%; Net margin of 5.2%; Gross margin of 38.3%; Current ratio of 0.70 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 4.75; Free cash flow per share is positive (1.41); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 12.3%; 3 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+10.8% -> +39.0% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 21.3%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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