VVV · NYSE · STOCK
Valvoline (VVV) Stock Analysis
$27.93
52W $26.21 – $41.08
55/100
$3.40B
36.0
0.99
Is VVV Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Valvoline (VVV) Watch with a composite score of 55/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated September 22, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +5.04 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -14.96 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is split. Analysts see this stock differently enough that the current rating reflects genuine uncertainty, not a weak signal.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 28.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- News sentiment is positive (+0.50 across 4 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- P/E of 33.4 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 13.5x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 3.90 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- EPS declining -63.3% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- RSI at 9 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 22, 2026
Overall Committee Score
55/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 51%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 28.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 33.4 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− EPS declining -63.3% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
41
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
neutral
42
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 3.90) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
74
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.50 across 4 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2517.06)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 55.0 to 55.0.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-09-21 to 2026-09-22 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
8.7
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-0.316
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$24.42
Resistance
$32.81
Bollinger %B
0.05
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$28.33
Below
EMA 21
$30.32
Below
EMA 50
$32.89
Below
EMA 200
$34.66
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
39
Growth
91
Profitability
63
Financial Health
0
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
36.0×
P/B Ratio
8.16×
PEG Ratio
-0.55
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$41.08
52W Low
$26.21
Quality & Growth
ROE
6224.5%
ROA
789.0%
Gross Margin
3828.4%
Operating Margin
1785.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
4.75
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 36.0 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 8.2x; PEG ratio of -0.6 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 62.2%; Return on assets of 7.9%; Net margin of 5.2%; Gross margin of 38.3%; Current ratio of 0.70 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 4.75; Free cash flow per share is positive (1.06); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 12.3%; 3 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+10.8% -> +39.0% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 21.3%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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