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VVV · NYSE · STOCK

Valvoline (VVV) Stock Analysis

Consumer Cyclical Updated September 22, 2026
$27.93
52W $26.21 – $41.08
55/100
$3.40B
36.0
0.99
AI Committee Verdict
Watch
55/100
Conviction: Contested · 50% agreement · 6 analysts
+23.2%
-8.3%
2.81:1
Contested

Is VVV Bullish or Bearish?

Mixed. Innellis AI committee rates Valvoline (VVV) Watch with a composite score of 55/100 , based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement. Last updated September 22, 2026.

What Would Change This View

Upgrade to Buy
Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +5.04 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
Downgrade to Reduce
Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -14.96 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.

Executive Summary

The committee is split. Analysts see this stock differently enough that the current rating reflects genuine uncertainty, not a weak signal.

Bull & Bear Case

Bull Case
  • ROE of 28.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
  • 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
  • Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
  • Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
  • News sentiment is positive (+0.50 across 4 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
  • P/E of 33.4 is moderate-to-rich — Value
  • Price-to-book of 13.5x prices in significant intangible value — Value
  • Debt-to-equity of 3.90 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
  • EPS declining -63.3% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
  • Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
  • RSI at 9 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)

AI Investment Committee

Committee Consensus As of September 22, 2026
Overall Committee Score
55/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 51%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst neutral
45 / 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 28.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 33.4 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst bullish
62 / 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− EPS declining -63.3% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst neutral
41 / 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst neutral
42 / 100 · High confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 3.90) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst bullish
65 / 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst bullish
74 / 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.50 across 4 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager neutral
45 / 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2517.06)
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Investment Thesis Evolution

Committee score moved marginally from 55.0 to 55.0.

Analyst-level changes:
  • Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).

Comparing 2026-09-21 to 2026-09-22 (1 day apart).

Technical Analysis

RSI (14)
8.7
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-0.316
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$24.42
Resistance
$32.81
Bollinger %B
0.05
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$28.33 Below
EMA 21
$30.32 Below
EMA 50
$32.89 Below
EMA 200
$34.66 Below

Fundamental Analysis

Valuation
39
Growth
91
Profitability
63
Financial Health
0
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio 36.0×
P/B Ratio 8.16×
PEG Ratio -0.55
Dividend Yield 0.00%
52W High $41.08
52W Low $26.21
Quality & Growth
ROE 6224.5%
ROA 789.0%
Gross Margin 3828.4%
Operating Margin 1785.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
Debt / Equity 4.75
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 36.0 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 8.2x; PEG ratio of -0.6 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 62.2%; Return on assets of 7.9%; Net margin of 5.2%; Gross margin of 38.3%; Current ratio of 0.70 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 4.75; Free cash flow per share is positive (1.06); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 12.3%; 3 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+10.8% -> +39.0% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 21.3%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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